Market Commentary

 

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  • Market Commentary - October 2019 18-Oct-2019

    3Q19 Market CommentaryBy Mila Mafanya – Interim CEO & Head of Equities Emerging markets succumb to global uncertainty Following a solid start to the first 2 quarters of the year, global equity markets buckled in the 3rd quarter. Emerging markets bore the brunt of the volatility flare ups triggered by a raft of global uncertainties. During the month of July, the market was pre-occupied by continuing global growth fears and incoming UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s overtures around a no-deal Brexit....

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  • Market Commentary - July 2019 09-Sep-2019

    By Shoaib Vayej – Portfolio ManagerGlobal overviewMore macro uncertainty, synchronised easing, complacent markets The second quarter witnessed further weakness in the global economy, most evident in declining trade volumes and manufacturing production. The current trade war is a significant economic event, in that it represents a reversal in the multi decade trend of globalisation. While trade tensions have undoubtedly impacted both sentiment and activity, it has not been the only factor...

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  • Market Commentary - April 2019 17-Apr-2019

    By Zahira Osman – Portfolio Manager Global Overview Developed Markets: Easing momentum, a more dovish stance and Brexit developments Following the resurgence of global growth in 2017, we saw the latter part of 2018 showing signs of a slowdown, indicative that the global economic cycle had peaked.  This has continued into the first quarter of 2019 with global industrial production (IP) declining since October last year, symptomatic of lowered activity levels.  There has also been growing...

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  • Market Commentary - January 2019 29-Jan-2019

    By Mila Mafanya – Head of Equities 2018: A year to forget for emerging markets In 2018, equity markets suffered the worst year-on-year performance since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which began in March 2009.  Developed equity markets fell 8.2% in US dollars (‘US$’), recording their worst annual return since 2008, the year they registered a fall of 40.3%. Similarly, emerging markets declined 14.6% in US$ in 2018, closely mirroring the 14.9% correction that manifested in 2015,...

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  • Market Commentary - October 2018 15-Oct-2018

    By Shoaib Vayej – Portfolio Manager Trade war uncertainty crimps global growth “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers” African proverb Global growth has moderated from the above trend, synchronous conditions experienced at the start of 2018. This is despite monetary conditions remaining very accommodative for the current levels of nominal growth. The United States (US), the world’s largest economy, has remained resilient in the face of this moderation, primarily due to tax cuts...

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  • Market Commentary - July 2018 01-Aug-2018

    By: Mila Mafanya Head of Equities & Corporate Strategy at Afena Capital Global Overview Global markets trumped by trade wars The fortunes of global markets in the second quarter of 2018 were dominated by the intensifying tensions surrounding an impending global trade war, a continuation of the strong rally in the US dollar and persistence in the surge of global oil prices. In March 2018, US President Donald Trump (‘Trump’) lived up to his 2016 election promise of making the US more...

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  • Market Commentary - April 2018 02-May-2018

    By: Zahira Osman - Portfolio Manager Global Overview Developed Markets: Tightening global liquidity as synchronous growth continues After a prolonged period of lacklustre growth post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the global economy finally saw its fortunes turn last year, with the recovery being highly synchronised in both developed and emerging markets.  This growth momentum, albeit slowing, has continued into 2018 with manufacturing PMI indices remaining elevated.  The prospect of trade...

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  • Market Commentary – January 2018 25-Jan-2018

    By Shoaib Vayej, Portfolio Manager Global economy strongest growth in a decade For the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (2008), the global economy is exhibiting synchronous and above trend growth. Economic momentum in advanced economies is extremely encouraging, indicating continued acceleration in growth. Extremely accommodative, coordinated monetary policy from central banks has been a key driver of this trend. The absence of inflation in this cycle has allowed policy makers to...

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  • Market Commentary – October 2017 03-Nov-2017

    Mila Mafanya - Head of Equities Weak dollar adds shine to metal prices Since the recent peak in the US dollar exchange rate during the first week of 2017, the market has seen a 10% reversal in the currency versus a basket of currencies, through to the end of September. The weakness is attributable to newly-elected US president Donald Trump’s inability to implement policies outlined in his election thus far and the lower appeal of US bonds versus their European counterparts as a result of the...

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  • Market Commentary – July 2017 12-Sep-2017

    Global Overview Developed Markets: Global monetary policy moving onto a less accommodative pathPositive growth momentum in the US continues despite the short-term weakness seen in core inflation data and GDP. In June rates were raised 25bps and in the most recent FOMC meeting, the Fed suggested that financing conditions remained accommodative which provides leeway to continue tightening. Recently published US job data confirmed the health of the job market. The US central bank is therefore...

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  • Market Commentary – April 2017 03-May-2017

    Market Commentary – April 2017 South Africa slips below investment grade after 17 years The global macro-economic backdrop remains supportive with global GDP growth approaching its pre-financial crisis trend of 3.5%p.a.; a result of synchronous growth amongst the major economies, something notably absent in the past few years. The recovery in manufacturing activity is even stronger; as reflected by the Purchasing Manager Indices and Industrial Production series. In the particular cases of...

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  • Market Commentary – January 2017 03-Feb-2017

    4Q16 Market Commentary Global risk-on rally trumped by the reflation trade in the last quarter 2016 will be remembered as a choppy year for equities with the global risk-on rally supporting markets for most of the first three quarters of the year and with political surprises periodically wrong-footing markets in the latter half of the year. Global markets experienced a seismic shift in investor psyche from the risk-off environment which had defined investment markets since 2011 to a risk-on world...

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  • Market Commentary – October 2016 10-Nov-2016

    Brexit fallout short-lived The surprise outcome of the Brexit vote in the UK, during the last week of June, completely wrong-footed markets leading to a sell off of UK Pound, trillions wiped off global markets and a resurgence of safe haven assets; in particular gold, the US dollar & developed market bonds. By early July, European and Japanese bond bonds hit all-time lows with almost $10 trillion of these bonds having dipped into negative territory.

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  • Market Commentary – June 2016 18-Sep-2016

    US Fed and Brexit dominate the global stageFollowing a shaky start to the year in January, the first quarter of 2016 will be fondly remembered as a ‘risk-on’ rally, which saw the broad basket of risky assets gain favour amongst investors with a consequent outperformance of less risky assets. The key triggers for this renewed risk appetite was a change in tone from the U.S. central bank (Fed); signalling a more subdued outlook for U.S. interest rate hikes (than previously guided), increased...

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